Penn - -250
Florian - +200
So it's Penn's long awaited title defence against Kenny Florian aka Ben Stiller. Ken-Flo's my boy, but I don't see this going too well for him. We all saw what Sherk did when he put him on his back, though being on your back against a roided up Sean Sherk would be bad for anybody. However, let's look back at Florian vs. Stevenson. I mean, he clearly grabbed the fence to avoid getting put on his back. Well this time, it will happen. Kenny will have to work on his back for this fight. Penn isn't messing around (as you can see in that picture) this time. Trying to outbox Sherk is great, but doing it against a top flight technical striker in the division like Kenny isn't going to go too well. Expect Penn to look to shoot for takedowns. Betting wise, I think Kenny is nice value as he does have upset potential. I mean, you're basically getting double your money for any bet you lay on him. Penn's line is atrocious at -250. Too much upset potential for a squeeze play here. By that I mean throwing a huge amount of money at a guarantee but with a low payout.I got Penn winning this by GNP or rear naked choke. Unfortunately, I am inclined to throw a bet towards Kenny. I'm rooting for him anyway.
Anderson - -380
Forrest - +300
Unimpressed by Silva's passiveness the last 2 fights, matchmaker Joe Silva decided to throw Forrest at him to get some sort of reaction out of Anderson. I can just see Silva screaming, "Are you not entertained!?" at the end of the fight in some sort of incomprehensible english. Silva should be able to take care of Forrest standing. The dude has a chin made of glass, but a heart of steel to make up for it. However, when you're knocked out it doesn't matter how much heart you have. Don't count out Forrest though. He's done well for me the few times I bet on him (Shogun, Rampage). Once again, he's got another terrific betting line at +300. Great size, cardio, heart, and very well rounded everywhere. If he can take Anderson down and control his body, he has a chance to upset. Remember, Silva is moving up a weight class so the size advantage should be more prominent and Forrest will have an advantage on the ground in my opinion. It's just his power I found questionable with his ground striking. Forrest can possibly win by GNP or submission, but Anderson has so many other ways to win it's not even funny. Should be a great fight. I already took a bet with a friend of mine for this, so I won't be betting online for this fight. I got Anderson.
Other fights
Neer vs. Pellegrino - Neer is the clear favorite. Batman has a nice betting line at +170, and he might even win! At least, I think he can. Neer's grappling skills are good enough to win and he has better stand up, but I think Kurt can pull it out. He's riding high after notable wins over Rob Emerson and Thiago Tavares. Neer bounced back after a loss with a win against Danzig, but who doesn't beat Danzig nowadays?
| Thales Leites | -340 | |
| 1416 | Alessio Sakara | +270 |
Will Thales need to scoot onto his ass again this fight? Probably not. Sakara is a dangerous striker, but Thales doesn't need to be chicken shit this time around. Thales knows about Sakara's hands, but he also needs to be aware of his kicks. That head kick he laid on Vedepo was sick. Thales is a little too heavily favored in the betting lines. Sakara may be known as the last guy Houston Alexander beat (I know pretty embarassing), but I don't think he is that bad. Thales should win it though, but I'd stay away from betting on this fight.
| Matt Riddle | -165 | |
| 1418 | Dan Cramer | +140 | |
Fireworks written all over this one! Riddle and Cramer looked like two of the best prospects in the Ultimate fighter two seasons ago. With some more training, I could tell they would be good. Now they are head to head. Should be an exciting fight. My money is on Riddle. He just keeps getting better and better. This fight is almost like a coin flip, as shown on the betting lines.
| Kendall Grove | +140 | |
| 1408 | Ricardo Almeida | -165 | |
Battle of the has beens? Pretty much. Kendall should take it, though I almost want to see him get destroyed just so we don't have to see that ridiculous "dagger dance" he does. In fact, I hope Ricardo smashes him. It won't happen though. It's going to be clinch, knee, clinch, knee, jab, kick, ref stoppage for Ricardo. He's not going to find a win here.
| 1408 |
No comments:
Post a Comment